Creating an El Niño Model

• Model changes in the Pacific Ocean during the El Niño Event
• Analyze changes of sea surface temperature
• Communicate arguments based on evidence

• How is energy transferred among the various spheres of the Earth System?
• What other parts of the Earth System may experience the effects of El Niño and how?  
• How are the different spheres of the Earth System affected by El Niño?

During an El Niño event, the trade winds which normally blow westward from South America toward Australia and New Guinea weaken. This results in more warm water staying off the coast of South America because it is not pushed westward. In turn, this reduces the amount of cold water that can rise and replace the warm water, a process called upwelling. With less upwelling, not as many nutrients are available for fish populations off the coast of South America. The presence of more warm water off the South American coast also leads to more rain in the area. There are also other effects around the world. 

Where the ocean is warmer, the sea level will be marginally higher. The Jason-1, launched in 2001, and Jason-2, launched in 2008, satellites measure height from the Earth's surface to the satellite. This includes measuring from the ocean surfaces. Differences in sea surface height can be measured with these satellites. 

Misconceptions about El Niño

• Misconception #1: All the impacts of El Niño are negative.
• Misconception #2: El Niño periods cause more disasters than normal periods.
• Misconception #3: El Niño and La Niña significantly affect the climate in most regions of the globe.
• Misconception #4: Regions that are affected by El Niño and La Niña see impacts during the entire 8 to 12 months that the climate conditions lasts.¨
• Misconception #5: We should worry more during El Niño episodes than La Niña episodes.
• Misconception #6: The stronger the El Niño/La Niña, the stronger the impacts, and vice versa.
• Misconception #7: El Niño and La Niña events are directly responsible for specific storms or other weather events.
• Misconception #8: El Niño and La Niña are closely related to global warming.

Credit: NOAA Climate.gov

• 8th Grade 7.1: The physical processes that shape the patterns of Earth's surface: The four components of Earth’s physical systems (the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere) are interdependent
• 8th Grade 8.2: Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Ecosystems: Physical processes determine the characteristics of ecosystems

Weather and climate change through complex links between the oceans and the atmosphere. Sources of variability in weather and climate around the world are changes in water currents, atmospheric pressure, and temperature in the oceans, especially the Pacific Ocean. These changes in the Pacific are often referred to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. If you want to understand how interconnected our planet is—how patterns and events in one place can affect life half a world away—study the ENSO phenomenon.

Two types of changes are referred to as El Niño and La Niña.This lesson focuses on El Nino which is a condition that sometimes occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but it is so big that it affects weather all over the world. NASA works with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other scientific institutions to track and study ENSO in many ways. From underwater floats that measure conditions in the depths of the Pacific to satellites that observe sea surface heights and the winds high above it, scientists now have many tools to better understand ENSO events.

Although El Niño events are complex and evolve differently—as do their impacts and teleconnections—improved predictions would help communities to prepare for likely impacts and to minimize disruptions. With more advanced warning, resource managers and civic leaders could make adjustments to how they manage fisheries, which crops to plant, what resources to allocate to combating mosquitoes, and when to raise awareness of risks such as fire or mudslides. The United Nations (U.N.) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported in April 2016 that 60 million people across Africa, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America needed food assistance due to weather extremes from the 2015-16 El Niño. Looking back at 1997-98, the U.N. attributed more than 20,000 deaths and $36 billion in infrastructure damage to that El Niño. With the help of NASA and others, an improved understanding of this event may help mitigate these losses.

• Physical oceanographer - This scientist researches waves, tides, currents, transmission of light and sound in the ocean, and ocean-atmosphere relationships
• Biological oceanographer - This researcher studies marine life forms and their relationships to each other and the environment
• Meteorologists - Professionals who are involved with researching, teaching, consulting, and forecasting weather, climate, and the forces that cause change in our environment.